When is heating oil cheapest?
5-year monthly relative price index. EIA
May
0.92x
Jun
0.91x
Jul
0.91x
Aug
0.93x
Sep
0.95x
Oct
0.99x
Nov
1.01x
Dec
1.03x
Jan
1.05x
Feb
1.06x
Mar
1.04x
Apr
0.99x
The August pre-buy window
Aug-Sep prices average 5 to 8% below the season peak. Dealers offer pre-buy contracts at summer rack prices. Risk: if crude crashes between August lock and December burn, you overpay. Reward: a normal-to-cold winter rewards the lock. Run the break-even.
What weather pattern reliably moves prices
Two events: NOAA winter outlook release in mid-October (forecast La Niña or El Niño bias) and the first sustained Arctic outbreak in PADD1A. Both can move retail $0.10 to $0.30/gal in 3 weeks.NOAA
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-03-30NYMEX HO settled: 2026-07-13EIA next release: 2026-10-05