Heating oil price history, 25 years, inflation-adjusted
25-year heating oil price, real 2026 dollars per gallon
2001
$2.13
2004
$2.86
2008
$5.74
2009
$3.60
2012
$5.04
2014
$4.62
2016
$2.78
2019
$3.66
2020
$3.07
2022
$5.55
2023
$4.34
2024
$3.86
2025
$3.72
2026
$3.79
2008: Pre-crash peak (oil $147/bbl)
2014: Pre-crude-crash (Saudi flood)
2016: Post-crash trough
2022: Ukraine invasion peak
2026: Hormuz tension, current
The four shocks
- 2008 ($5.74 real). Crude hit $147/bbl in July. Heating oil annual average peaked. Recession unwound it in 6 months.
- 2014 ($4.62 real) to 2016 ($2.78 real). Saudi production flood. 40% drop in 24 months. Slowest unwind: 3 years before retail re-anchored.
- 2022 ($5.55 real). Russia-Ukraine. Distillate refining shortage compounded crude move. Single largest weekly residential print in NE in February 2022.
- 2026 ($5.54 real, current). Hormuz tension premium. Crude up but refining margin contained.
Normal year baseline
Stripping shocks, the long-run normal in 2026 dollars is roughly $3.20 to $3.80/gal residential. Anything below $3.00 historically was the 2015 to 2017 oversupply trough. Anything above $5.00 was a shock. Today's $5.54 is above the $5.00 line that has historically marked shock territory, not a normal-band year. EIA
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-03-30NYMEX HO settled: 2026-07-13EIA next release: 2026-10-05