Cold winter scenario
+15% HDD adds ~15% to gallons. Combined with a 5 to 10% retail price rise typical of cold snaps. NOAA
Effective $/gal
$5.54
Effective gallons
800
Total cost
$4,432.00
Cold-winter precedent in PADD1A
- 2013 to 14 (Polar Vortex). HDD +14% vs normal. Average residential bill rose 18%.
- 2017 to 18 (bomb cyclone Jan). HDD +9%. Spot prices spiked 15% for 3 weeks, then unwound.
- 2022 to 23 (Christmas blast). Spot HDD +30% for 10 days. Bill effect ~6% across the season.
Top off in October?
If NOAA's October outlook tilts cold and the front-month NYMEX HO is in backwardation, topping off in October beats waiting. Otherwise the seasonal Oct-to-Mar curve absorbs the bump within normal range. EIA
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-03-30NYMEX HO settled: 2026-07-13EIA next release: 2026-10-05