Cold winter scenario
In EIA's October 2026 Winter Fuels Outlook, a winter with 10% more heating degree days than forecast raises the average oil-heated household's use from 402 to 436 gallons (+8%) and its price from $5.27 to $5.35/gal, taking winter spend from $2,115 to $2,332. EIA
Effective $/gal
$6.14
Effective gallons
764
Total cost
$4,690.96
The last five winters
EIA's own record for the average US home heating mainly with oil. Northeast heating degree days measure how cold the winter was; more than 80% of oil-heated homes are in the Northeast. EIA
| Winter | NE HDD | Gal | $/gal | Spend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | 4,537 | 417 | $3.93 | $1,638 |
| 2022-23 | 4,098 | 386 | $4.31 | $1,662 |
| 2023-24 | 4,129 | 388 | $3.84 | $1,487 |
| 2024-25 | 4,509 | 416 | $3.65 | $1,515 |
| 2025-26 | 4,923 | 443 | $3.94 | $1,745 |
2025-26 was the coldest of the five in the Northeast and the heaviest on gallons. Prices excluding taxes; winter is November to March. The slider above runs the same arithmetic on your own gallons and price, starting from this site's 1,800 sqft model home.
Top off in October?
If NOAA's October outlook tilts cold and the front-month NY Harbor ULSD futures are in backwardation (nearby months dearer than later ones), the market is already pricing a tight winter, which argues for filling sooner. Neither signal is a guarantee. NOAA
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-11-02NY Harbor ULSD spot refreshed: 2026-11-05EIA next release: 2026-11-12