Crude shock scenario
Worked impact (700 gal household)
- Baseline at $6.14: $4,298.
- +20% crude shock: effective $6.64/gal, $4,650 (+$352, +8%).
- +35% crude shock: effective $7.02/gal, $4,915 (+$617, +14%).
- +50% crude shock: effective $7.40/gal, $5,179 (+$881, +21%).
Where the 41% comes from
It is crude's share of the retail dollar, and nothing else. On the week of 2026-11-02, WTI at $105.59/bbl is $2.51/gal of a $6.14 retail price. If crude moves and the refining crack and the downstream margin hold in cents per gallon, retail moves by that share of the crude move. See where the retail dollar goes for the full split.
Two caveats worth more than the arithmetic. The crack does not hold still in a cold snap, which is the whole point of the cold winter scenario, and dealers reprice weekly off a board rate, so a spike that fades inside a fortnight may never reach your invoice while a sustained move will. We do not have a published elasticity for either effect and are not going to invent one, so treat these rows as a floor-level sensitivity rather than a forecast.
Homeowner hedges
- Pre-buy fixed locks before the shock prints. Best if you act early.
- Cap caps your downside at +cap fee. Pay for optionality.
- Will-call rides every penny.