Crude shock scenario
A 20 to 50% crude move passes ~70% through to retail over 4 weeks. EIA
Effective $/gal
$5.54
Effective gallons
700
Total cost
$3,878.00
Worked impact (700 gal household)
- Baseline at $5.54: $3,878.
- +20% crude shock: effective $6.32/gal, $4,421 (+$543, +14%).
- +35% crude shock: effective $6.90/gal, $4,828 (+$950, +24%).
- +50% crude shock: effective $7.48/gal, $5,235 (+$1,357, +35%).
Historical shocks
- 2008. Crude $147/bbl peak, +85% YoY. HO retail +63%. Pass-through ~74%.
- 2022 (Ukraine). Crude +52% in 3 weeks. HO retail +44%. Pass-through ~85% in PADD1A (refining crack stressed).
Homeowner hedges
- Pre-buy fixed locks before the shock prints. Best if you act early.
- Cap caps your downside at +cap fee. Pay for optionality.
- Will-call rides every penny.
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-03-30NYMEX HO settled: 2026-07-13EIA next release: 2026-10-05