Heating oil vs natural gas cost
Natural gas beats oil on $/MMBtu by a structural margin. Hookup cost decides conversion payback. EIA
The bar chart
Heating oil (#2)$32.19/MMBtu eff @ 85%
Propane$35.84/MMBtu eff @ 90%
Natural gas$15.43/MMBtu eff @ 92%
Kerosene (K-1)$39.13/MMBtu eff @ 85%
Heat pump (ccASHP)$23.03/MMBtu eff @ 280%
Annual fuel-only delta (1,800 gal household)
Oil household at 1,800 gal x $3.79/gal = $6822/yr. Equivalent gas (~140 MMBtu at $14.2/MMBtu raw) = ~$1988/yr. Fuel-only saving: ~$4834/yr.
Hookup payback math
- $3,000 hookup ÷ $500/yr saving = 6 years. Easy win.
- $8,000 hookup ÷ $500/yr saving = 16 years. Marginal.
- $15,000 hookup ÷ $500/yr saving = 30 years. Skip.
Add a new gas furnace + line install (~$5,000 to $9,000) to the conversion side.
When oil wins
- No gas main on your street.
- Hookup quote >$10,000.
- You already have a recent high-AFUE oil furnace.
Cross-references
EIA SHOPP last reading: 2026-03-30NYMEX HO settled: 2026-07-13EIA next release: 2026-10-05